NARA · Stock Research

NSE Deep Dives

Independent, plain-language research on Kenya's most liquid and most watched NSE-listed companies — ranked by 3-month trading volume and market capitalisation. No broker relationships. No sponsored content. Built for the kawaida mwananchi.

ACCUMULATE — Positive research view
WATCH — Monitor for entry opportunity
INCOME — Hold for dividend yield
NARA · Market Insights · Updated July 2026

What Happened on the NSE Since January

Six data-driven narratives on the events, sectors, and stocks that defined Kenya's markets in H1 2026 — each with a KSh 10,000 investment scenario.

H1 REVIEWOVERVIEW
The Bull Run Nobody Predicted
Analysis · NASI +21.75% · KSh 3.73T record cap · Jul 2026
SECTORBANKING
The February Banking Bonanza
Analysis · +KSh 327Bn in February · Record profits & dividends
EVENTVOLATILITY
Black March: The Oil Shock
Analysis · NASI −9.84% in March · KSh 4.28Bn foreign flight
MOVERS+69–97%
KQ, Uchumi & the Outlier Surge
Analysis · KQ +69.4% · Uchumi +97% · Eaagads +64% · Sasini +43%
NEW LISTINGREIT
Kenya's First Dollar Green REIT
Analysis · TRIFIC · Centum · USD-denominated · NSE debut
SCENARIOSKSh 10,000
The KSh 10,000 Scoreboard
Analysis · Every major NSE stock · January to July 2026
NARA Market Insights · H1 Review · Published July 2026

NSE H1 2026: The Bull Market Nobody Predicted

Market Overview · January–July 2026
+21.75%
NASI Year-to-Date
KSh 3.73T
Market Cap — All-Time High
+26.77%
Market Cap Growth YTD
4 of 5
NSE Indices at Record Highs

Kenya's stock market entered 2026 nursing wounds from a difficult 2024–25 — shilling volatility, high interest rates, and sovereign debt anxieties had dampened investor appetite for months. Most forecasters expected a slow grind back. What actually unfolded was one of the NSE's strongest first halves in recent memory: a banking-led surge in February, a sharp but brief oil-shock selloff in March, and then a steady march to new records from April through June. By July 3, 2026, the NASI stood at 227.17 — a 21.75% gain since January 1 — and total market capitalisation had crossed KSh 3.73 trillion for the first time in NSE history.

The first month of 2026 was deceptively calm. Trading volumes were thin, gains were modest, and the market appeared to be feeling its way forward. Safaricom (SCOM) opened at KSh 28.35 — below the KSh 30 level many retail investors considered a psychological floor. KCB opened at KSh 65.75. The NASI began the year at approximately 186.6. There was nothing in January to suggest what February had in store.

February changed everything. Kenya's major banks began releasing their FY2025 full-year results, and the numbers were consistently ahead of expectations. Record profits, improved asset quality, and — most importantly for price action — dramatically higher dividends. The NSE added KSh 326.99 billion in market capitalisation in February alone, more than double the KSh 138.56Bn added in January. All major indices posted double-digit gains. The banking sector index was the engine: it rose to lead every other sector. Foreign investors were actually net sellers throughout this rally, yet domestic absorption — pension funds, SACCOs, and retail investors — was strong enough to push prices higher anyway. That domestic-driven rally is historically unusual and a positive structural signal for the NSE's depth.

March delivered a sharp reminder that bull markets are never straight lines. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East — specifically around the Strait of Hormuz — sent the cost of Murban crude (Kenya's primary import grade) up 21% in a single week. Inflation fears spiked. Foreign investors sold in 17 of 22 March trading sessions, pulling out a net KSh 4.28 billion. The NASI fell 9.84% to 194.82. Only 7 of the 65+ listed stocks managed to gain in March. Yet the month ended with a telling recovery: ABSA gained 4.77% on the final trading day, NCBA climbed 1.68%, and several other banks reclaimed ground. The market was already signalling that the selloff was a buying opportunity, not a structural break.

With the oil shock fading and Q1 2026 earnings confirming the banking sector's continued strength, the market resumed its upward march. April, May, and June delivered a consistent run of gains. By June 19, the NSE had its best week since February, with four indices registering all-time highs. By June 26 (Week 26), total market capitalisation hit KSh 3.73 trillion — an all-time record — and the NASI reached 222.42. The banking sector index closed at 254.51, a 24.97% gain since January 1. Beyond banking, speculative names surged: Kenya Airways (KQ) climbed 69.4%, Uchumi shot up 97%, and agricultural counters Eaagads (+64%) and Sasini (+43%) caught the eye.

If you had invested KSh 10,000 on January 1, 2026 — and held to July 3
Where You Put It
Start Price
Jul Price
KSh 10,000 → ?
NASI Index Tracker
186.6
227.17
KSh 12,175 (+KSh 2,175)
Safaricom (SCOM)
KSh 28.35
KSh 34.20
KSh 12,063 (+KSh 2,063)
KCB Group (KCB)
KSh 65.75
KSh 78.50
KSh 11,940 (+KSh 1,940)
Savings Account (~5% p.a.)
KSh 10,247 (half-year)

The key insight: even a diversified NSE exposure via an index tracker would have delivered 8.7× the interest earned in a savings account over the same 6 months. Past performance does not guarantee future results — but 2026 has demonstrated that the NSE rewards patient investors who stay in during the noise.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. NARA does not hold positions in securities discussed. Prices are approximate and sourced from public market data. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing.

NARA Market Insights · Sector Analysis · Published July 2026

The February Banking Bonanza:
How Kenya's Banks Drove a KSh 327Bn Rally

Sector Analysis · Banking · February–July 2026
KSh 327Bn
Added to NSE Cap in Feb
+24.97%
Banking Index YTD
8.3%
Banks' Median Div. Yield (Mar low)
5.4×
Banking Median P/E at March Low

Kenya's banks came into 2026 with a secret weapon: record 2025 profits. When results began flowing in February — KCB, Equity Group, Co-operative Bank, ABSA, NCBA — the market found out that Kenya's lenders had not merely survived the tough 2024–25 environment; they had thrived. Higher interest margins from elevated CBK rates, improving asset quality as the shilling stabilised, and disciplined cost management translated into profits and dividend announcements that sent the banking sector index surging. February alone saw the NSE add KSh 326.99 billion in market capitalisation. By July, the banking sector index was up 24.97% year-to-date — the NSE's best-performing sector of H1 2026.

When the CBK kept rates elevated through 2024 and into 2025, the conventional wisdom was that this would squeeze borrowers and hurt bank asset quality. What actually happened was more nuanced: yes, some borrowers struggled, but the banks — particularly the large-cap lenders — priced their loans aggressively, managed their NPL ratios carefully, and collected fat net interest margins. By the time they reported FY2025 results in early 2026, the numbers were striking. Record profits across the board. ABSA, NCBA, and Co-operative Bank all declared significantly higher dividends. The NSE's banking sector index, which had already begun climbing in January, detonated upward in February as institution after institution confirmed what the smart money had been positioning for.

Dividends matter enormously to Kenyan retail investors, many of whom hold stocks specifically for income. When major banks announced payout increases, a new cohort of buyers entered the market — SACCO members, pension plan beneficiaries, and retail investors who had been sitting on the sidelines. This domestic buying was robust enough to absorb continued foreign selling (foreign investors were net sellers throughout much of February and March, partly due to global risk-off flows and partly due to portfolio rebalancing). The market breadth confirmed the story: during February's best week, virtually every NSE stock gained — a rare all-gainer five-day run that is now a footnote in NSE trading history. Known confirmed 2025 full-year dividends: ABSA Bank Kenya, NCBA Group (KSh 4.60/share), Standard Chartered Kenya (KSh 23.00/share), and Stanbic Holdings (KSh 18.55/share).

When the oil shock hit in March and the banking sector sold off alongside everything else, the numbers became extraordinary. At the March 31 close, the median banking stock on the NSE was trading at just 5.4× earnings and yielding 8.3%. To put that in context: a Kenyan T-bill was yielding approximately 12–13% at the time. The spread between T-bill yields and bank stock dividend yields was unusually thin — meaning bank stocks were offering near-treasury-level income on top of equity upside. Patient investors who added at the March lows have since seen the sector index recover to 254.51 by July 3, a 30.7% gain from the March close of 194.82 on the NASI. The banking index itself did even better.

KSh 10,000 split equally across 4 banks — January to July 2026
Bank
Invested
Est. YTD Return
Jul Value
KCB Group
KSh 2,500
+19.4%
KSh 2,985
ABSA Bank Kenya
KSh 2,500
~+22%
KSh 3,050
Co-operative Bank
KSh 2,500
~+20%
KSh 3,000
Equity Group
KSh 2,500
~+15%
KSh 2,875
TOTAL BASKET
KSh 10,000
~+19%
≈ KSh 11,910

Note: ABSA and Co-op YTD estimates are approximated from confirmed March–July price data. These figures exclude dividends received — if dividends are added, the total return would be meaningfully higher.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Return estimates for some stocks are approximated where full YTD data was not publicly confirmed at time of publication. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Market Insights · Event Analysis · Published July 2026

Black March: The Oil Shock That Scared the NSE
— and Why Patient Investors Won

Event Analysis · March 2026 Correction
−9.84%
NASI Return in March
7
Stocks That Gained in March
KSh 4.28Bn
Foreign Net Outflows in March
+16.6%
NSE Recovery Apr–Jul (from March close)

March 2026 was the NSE's worst month in recent memory. Every one of the five major NSE indices fell 8–10%. Only 7 of 65+ listed stocks ended the month in positive territory. The trigger was a geopolitical shock in the Middle East: rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz sent the cost of Murban crude (Kenya's primary import grade) up 21% in a single week. Inflation fears spiked. Foreign investors — already edgy — sold in 17 of the month's 22 trading sessions, pulling out a net KSh 4.28 billion. The NASI fell from approximately 215 in mid-February to 194.82 at the March 31 close. And then, as suddenly as it had started, the storm ended. By July 3, the NASI stood at 227.17 — a 16.6% recovery from the March trough. Investors who panicked and sold never got back in at better prices. Investors who held (or bought the dip) did very well.

In early March 2026, escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf — specifically around the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes — caused a sudden repricing of global energy risk. Murban crude, Kenya's primary import grade, spiked 21% in a single week. For a country that imports virtually all of its oil, this was an immediate threat to Kenya's current account, inflation trajectory, and the CBK's rate path. Investors did not wait to see how it would play out. Foreign institutional investors — who hold a meaningful share of the NSE's free float in large-cap stocks — began liquidating. In Week 11 of the year alone, net foreign outflows hit KSh 2.60 billion. By month-end, the total was KSh 4.28 billion in net sales.

The NASI fell from approximately 215 in mid-February to 194.82 at March 31 — a 9.84% decline. All five NSE equity indices fell between 8 and 10% for the month. The banking sector, which had led the rally, saw valuations compress to a median P/E of 5.4× and a dividend yield of 8.3% — levels that look, in hindsight, extremely attractive. Of the 65+ stocks on the NSE, only 7 managed to close March in positive territory. The market's valuation at 4.5× earnings at month-end was the lowest in years.

The oil shock did not last. Within weeks of the peak panic, Hormuz tensions eased, crude prices stabilised, and Q1 2026 corporate earnings — released in April and May — confirmed that Kenya's banking sector had continued its strong run into the new year. May brought a wave of optimistic results. June was the month when the NSE eclipsed its previous all-time highs. By June 26, four of five NSE indices were at record levels. By July 3, the NASI had reached 227.17 — 16.6% above the March 31 close. The investors who stayed in, or who had the courage to buy in March, were handsomely rewarded. The panic-sellers were not.

Three investors, same starting KSh 10,000 — three different March decisions
Investor Type
Jan Start
March Decision
Jul 2026 Value
Patient Holder (NASI)
KSh 10,000
Held. Did nothing.
KSh 12,175
Dip Buyer (added in March)
KSh 10,000
Bought more at NASI 194.82.
KSh 13,300+
Panic Seller (exited in March)
KSh 10,000
Sold at ~NASI 200. Stayed cash.
~KSh 10,060

The panic seller locked in a near-10% loss and missed the 16.6% recovery entirely. The patient holder gained 21.75%. The dip buyer — the rarest type — did best of all. The lesson: volatility in equity markets is normal. Unless your investment thesis has changed, volatility is not a sell signal.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Scenario figures are based on publicly available NASI index data. Actual individual stock performance varied. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing.

NARA Market Insights · Stock Analysis · Published July 2026

KQ +69%, Uchumi +97%:
The Unlikely Heroes of Kenya's 2026 Surge

Stock Analysis · High-Momentum Movers · H1 2026
+97%
Uchumi YTD — #1 on NSE
+69.4%
Kenya Airways (KQ) YTD
+64%
Eaagads YTD
+43%
Sasini YTD

While banking stocks drove the broad market rally in H1 2026, the most spectacular gains came from a very different set of names: Kenya Airways (KQ), long-troubled Uchumi Supermarkets, and two agricultural counters — Eaagads and Sasini. These stocks had very little in common except that they were all deeply out of favour heading into 2026, and they all exploded higher. KQ rose 69.4%, climbing from KSh 3.53 in January to KSh 5.98 by July 3. Uchumi nearly doubled. Eaagads gained 64%. Sasini gained 43%. These are the kind of numbers that make headlines and tempt new investors. They also carry warnings that experienced investors know well: spectacular gains in illiquid, turnaround stocks can reverse just as quickly as they arrived.

Kenya Airways has been a perennial disappointment on the NSE — a state-linked airline that has burned through capital, restructurings, and investor goodwill for over a decade. So why did it rise 69.4% in H1 2026? The answer is a combination of genuine operational improvement and a shift in market sentiment. Post-COVID passenger volumes continued recovering through 2025 and into 2026. KQ's restructuring plan — involving route rationalisation, cost cuts, and government support — began showing tangible results in its latest financial disclosures. The market, which had priced KQ for near-zero, began repricing for survival-and-recovery rather than imminent collapse. At KSh 3.53 in January, even a modest improvement in the probability of survival translated into a large percentage gain on such a depressed price. By July 3, KQ traded at KSh 5.98. KSh 10,000 invested in January would have purchased approximately 2,832 shares, now worth approximately KSh 16,935 — a gain of KSh 6,935 in six months.

Uchumi's 97% gain in H1 2026 is harder to explain through fundamentals. The company remains deeply financially challenged — it has not returned to sustainable profitability, its store network is a shadow of its former self, and it has a long history of failed restructuring promises. The rally, by most analyst accounts, is speculative in nature: driven by renewed interest in turnaround prospects, thin liquidity (which means small volumes can move the price dramatically), and a broader market environment where risk appetite was elevated. NARA does not have a formal research view on Uchumi, but we note the following: a stock that doubles on thin fundamentals can halve just as quickly. The 97% gain is real if you traded it. It is not a long-term investment thesis.

The agricultural sector's performance in 2026 is more grounded in real-world developments. Eaagads — a tea and coffee producer — gained 64% YTD. Sasini, another tea and coffee counter, gained 43%. The drivers here are genuine: tea auction prices at the Mombasa Tea Auction have been elevated, benefiting from supply constraints in some competing export markets. A relatively stable shilling (after the turbulence of 2024) has helped exporters like Eaagads and Sasini convert their USD-denominated tea and coffee earnings into KSh at better-than-feared rates. These are not pure-speculative gains — there is a real earnings uplift story underneath. That said, agricultural stocks are highly cyclical and dependent on commodity prices, rainfall, and global tea/coffee dynamics that are outside any individual company's control.

KSh 10,000 invested January 1, 2026 — held to July 3
Stock
Jan Price
Jul Price
KSh 10,000 Becomes
Kenya Airways (KQ)
KSh 3.53
KSh 5.98
KSh 16,935 (+KSh 6,935)
Uchumi Supermarkets
~KSh 19,700 (+97% — speculative)
Eaagads
~KSh 16,400 (+64%)
Sasini
~KSh 14,300 (+43%)
NASI Index (broad market)
186.6
227.17
KSh 12,175 (+21.75%)

The outliers look incredible on paper. But they come with a warning: to capture those returns, you had to identify these stocks in advance, accept their higher risk profiles, and hold through extreme volatility including March's selloff. Most retail investors who try to chase recent outperformers buy after the move has already happened. The broad market, at +21.75%, delivered solid real returns without requiring you to correctly pick illiquid, high-risk names. Both approaches have a place — just know which game you're playing.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Uchumi, Eaagads, and Sasini exact January prices were not independently confirmed by NARA at publication — YTD % returns are sourced from public data. NARA has no formal research view on any of the stocks in this article. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Market Insights · New Listing Analysis · Published July 2026

Kenya's First Dollar Green REIT:
What the TRIFIC Listing Means for Ordinary Investors

New Listing Analysis · TRIFIC Green Fund · H1 2026
First
Dollar-Denominated Green REIT on NSE
USD
Denomination — KSh Devaluation Hedge
Centum
Sponsor — Two Rivers Real Estate

In H1 2026, Kenya's NSE welcomed something genuinely new: the TRIFIC Green property fund — a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) sponsored by Centum Real Estate, and Kenya's first-ever dollar-denominated green-labelled investment fund listed on a domestic stock exchange. Its listing on the NSE is a milestone for three reasons: it gives Kenyan investors access to commercial real estate income without having to buy property directly; it provides a natural USD hedge at a time when memory of KSh depreciation is still fresh; and the "Green" label — backed by environmental impact criteria — opens TRIFIC to a new class of ESG-focused institutional capital that has historically overlooked Kenya's equity markets.

A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a company or fund that owns income-producing property — office buildings, shopping malls, warehouses, hospitals — and distributes the rental income to its shareholders. Think of it as a way to be a landlord without buying a building. You buy units of the REIT on the stock exchange, and in return you receive a share of the rental income (as dividends) and any appreciation in the underlying property values. REITs are regulated, liquid (you can buy and sell them on the NSE), and offer much lower minimum investment thresholds than direct real estate. Before TRIFIC, Kenya's only listed REIT was the ILAM Fahari I-REIT — a KSh-denominated fund that has faced its own liquidity challenges since listing in 2015.

From 2023 to early 2024, the Kenyan shilling fell from approximately KSh 120/USD to KSh 160/USD — a 33% devaluation in roughly 12 months. This was devastating for KSh-denominated savings and investments. TRIFIC's USD denomination means its units are priced in dollars. When you invest in TRIFIC, your exposure is to USD-denominated commercial real estate rental income (the fund holds assets linked to USD rents, as is common in Class-A commercial property in Nairobi). This does not eliminate risk — property values can fall, rents can decline, occupancy can drop — but it does mean your investment does not erode if the KSh weakens again. For any Kenyan investor worried about future currency risk, this is a meaningful structural benefit.

The "Green" designation in TRIFIC signals that the fund's underlying assets meet certain environmental criteria — likely related to building energy efficiency, materials, waste management, and carbon footprint. This is not merely marketing: green-labelled financial instruments increasingly attract a dedicated pool of ESG-focused institutional capital from development finance institutions (DFIs), pension funds with sustainability mandates, and impact investors. Kenya's capital markets have historically struggled to attract this type of investor. TRIFIC's green certification opens a new channel. The fund attracted strong demand at its IPO, reflecting this new investor base's appetite for well-structured Kenyan assets.

TRIFIC vs. traditional NSE equity — a framework comparison
Factor
TRIFIC Green REIT
NSE Equity (e.g. Banks)
Direct Property
Currency exposure
USD (hedge)
KSh
KSh (usually)
Minimum investment
Low (NSE-traded)
Low (KSh 100s–1,000s)
Very high (millions)
Primary return type
Rental income (dividend)
Capital gains + dividend
Capital appreciation + rent
Liquidity
Listed — sell any trading day
Listed — sell any trading day
Illiquid — months to sell

For a KSh 10,000 investor: the most important implication of TRIFIC is that the NSE now offers one more tool for building a genuinely diversified portfolio. An investor holding SCOM, KCB, and TRIFIC is exposed to telecoms, banking, and commercial real estate across two currencies (KSh and USD). That is real diversification — the kind that reduces the chance of your entire portfolio being hurt by any single shock. NARA does not have a formal research rating on TRIFIC at the time of publication.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Information about TRIFIC is sourced from public disclosures and news reports. NARA does not hold a position in TRIFIC and has no formal research rating on the fund. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing.

NARA Market Insights · Investment Scenarios · Published July 2026

The KSh 10,000 Scoreboard:
Every Major NSE Stock, January to July 2026

Investment Scenarios · Full H1 2026 Returns · Ranked by Performance

The question every investor wants answered: "If I had put KSh 10,000 into stock X on January 1, 2026, what would it be worth today?" This scoreboard answers that question for the NSE's major stocks, using confirmed public market data where available and clearly flagged estimates where exact January prices were not independently verified. Stocks are ranked by H1 2026 return. A few important caveats: these are price returns only and do not include dividends — the total return for dividend-paying stocks would be higher. Past performance does not predict future returns.

Stock
H1 2026 Return
Jan Price → Jul Price
KSh 10,000 → ?
Uchumi Supermarkets
+97% ⚠ speculative
Confirmed YTD figure
~KSh 19,700
Kenya Airways (KQ)
+69.4%
KSh 3.53 → KSh 5.98
KSh 16,935
Eaagads
+64%
Confirmed YTD figure
~KSh 16,400
Sasini
+43%
Confirmed YTD figure
~KSh 14,300
Safaricom (SCOM)
+20.6%
KSh 28.35 → KSh 34.20
KSh 12,063
KCB Group (KCB)
+19.4%
KSh 65.75 → KSh 78.50
KSh 11,940
NASI Index (all-market)
+21.75%
186.6 → 227.17
KSh 12,175
Co-operative Bank (COOP)
+14.7% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 29.90 → KSh 34.30 †
KSh 11,470 †
ABSA Bank Kenya (ABSA)
+9.2% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 30.05 → KSh 32.80 †
KSh 10,920 †
EABL
+7.1% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 255.25 → KSh 273.25 †
KSh 10,705 †
Equity Group (EQTY)
+3.0% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 74.00 → KSh 76.25 †
KSh 10,304 †
Stock
H1 2026 Return
Mar Price → Jul Price
KSh 10,000 → ?
NCBA Group (NCBA)
−1.1% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 87.75 → KSh 86.75 †
KSh 9,886 †
KenGen (KEGN)
−0.9% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 9.18 → KSh 9.10 †
KSh 9,913 †
Kenya Power (KPLC)
−6.7% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 17.10 → KSh 15.95 †
KSh 9,327 †
Diamond Trust Bank (DTK)
−9.6% (Mar–Jul)
KSh 156.75 → KSh 141.75 †
KSh 9,041 †

† March–July price data only. These stocks' full YTD returns (from January) could differ significantly — the January-to-March segment is not captured in these figures. Full YTD data was not confirmed for all stocks at publication.

1. Diversification beats stock-picking — most of the time. The NASI index (+21.75%) beat the majority of individual stocks in our scoreboard. Buying a basket of the NSE's top names consistently outperforms the effort to pick individual winners. The exceptions (KQ, Eaagads) are real but unpredictable in advance.

2. Energy and utilities lagged badly. KPLC (−6.7%) and KEGN (−0.9%) underperformed the market significantly. Regulated utilities in Kenya face ongoing uncertainty around tariff reviews, electricity theft write-offs, and government pricing policy. These are structural headwinds that didn't disappear in H1 2026.

3. Dividends are not in these numbers — and they matter. Every bank stock on this list paid a dividend in H1 2026. KCB's total return including the KSh 3.50/share final dividend is meaningfully higher than the +19.4% price return shown. For income investors, the total return picture is substantially better than these price-only figures suggest.

This scoreboard is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Returns marked † represent March–July price movements only and do not reflect full January–July performance. Returns not marked † are based on confirmed January start prices and July 3 closing prices. Dividends are excluded from all return calculations. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing.

Top 20 by Volume & Market Cap · Updated July 2026
SCOMACCUMULATE
Safaricom PLC
Telecom · Deep Dive #002 · KSh 34.20
EQTYACCUMULATE
Equity Group Holdings
Banking · Deep Dive #003 · KSh 76.25
EABLWATCH
East African Breweries
Consumer · Deep Dive #004 · KSh 273.25
KCBWATCH
KCB Group PLC
Banking · Deep Dive #005 · KSh 78.50
SCBKINCOME
Standard Chartered Kenya
Banking · Deep Dive #006 · KSh 340.50
COOPACCUMULATE
Co-operative Bank
Banking · Deep Dive #007 · KSh 34.30
NCBAACCUMULATE
NCBA Group PLC
Banking · Deep Dive #008 · KSh 86.75
SBICWATCH
Stanbic Holdings
Banking · Deep Dive #009 · KSh 255.75
IMHACCUMULATE
I&M Group PLC
Banking · Deep Dive #010 · KSh 49.05
BATINCOME
BAT Kenya PLC
Consumer · Deep Dive #011 · KSh 548.00
KEGNACCUMULATE
KenGen PLC
Energy · Deep Dive #012 · KSh 9.10
ABSAACCUMULATE
ABSA Bank Kenya
Banking · Deep Dive #013 · KSh 32.80
KPLCWATCH
Kenya Power & Lighting
Energy · Deep Dive #014 · KSh 15.95
KNREACCUMULATE
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
Insurance · Deep Dive #001 · KSh 3.78
DTBACCUMULATE
Diamond Trust Bank
Banking · Deep Dive #015 · KSh 141.75
CICWATCH
CIC Insurance Group
Insurance · Deep Dive #016 · KSh 5.06
BRITWATCH
Britam Holdings
Insurance · Deep Dive #017 · KSh 11.75
JUBINCOME
Jubilee Holdings
Insurance · Deep Dive #018 · KSh 388.50
NARA Research · Deep Dive #002

Safaricom PLC
SCOM · NSE

Telecommunications · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 28.00
The One Paragraph Summary

Safaricom is Kenya's most valuable company — a telecoms giant that also runs M-Pesa, the largest mobile money platform in Africa. With a market cap that crossed KSh 1 trillion in 2025, revenue surpassing USD 3 billion, and a near-monopoly on Kenya's digital payments infrastructure, it is the closest thing the NSE has to a blue-chip anchor. In March 2026, Vodacom agreed to acquire a 20% stake from the Kenyan government and Vodafone in a USD 2.1 billion deal — a major structural development that clarifies ownership and removes a long-standing overhang. The stock has rallied strongly and at current prices trades at a premium to most NSE peers, so patience for dips is warranted.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
14.9×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
3.98%
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 34.20
Current Price
July 3, 2026

Safaricom benefits from Kenya's digitisation wave. CBK rate cuts stimulate economic activity, expand the SME base, and accelerate M-Pesa transaction volumes — all positives for Safaricom's top line. The CBK rate at 8.75% and still falling creates an environment where mobile money becomes even more critical to commerce, given that credit card infrastructure remains thin across the country.

Safaricom's moat is M-Pesa. It processes more transactions annually than many African banking systems combined, with 35+ million active users. The telecom business — voice, data, SMS — is the cash engine that funds the M-Pesa ecosystem. Safaricom Ethiopia launched in 2022 and remains an early-stage drag on margins, but offers substantial long-term optionality: Ethiopia has 120 million people and is largely unbanked. Vodacom's acquisition of a 20% stake at a premium signals strong foreign institutional conviction in the long-term story.

Metric
Current
Comment
P/E Ratio
~20×
Premium justified by moat
Dividend Yield
~4.5%
Consistent payer, 70% payout ratio
EBITDA Margin
~50%
World-class for African telecoms
Analyst Price Target
KSh 31–44
Consensus range
Ethiopia drag: The Ethiopia launch consumed significant capital. Path to profitability remains uncertain and timelines have shifted repeatedly.
Regulatory risk: CBK and CA oversight of M-Pesa creates policy uncertainty. Any forced unbundling of M-Pesa from Safaricom's telecom operations would be structurally negative.
Valuation premium: At ~20× P/E, Safaricom is not cheap by NSE standards. A meaningful price decline requires patience for a significant dip.
ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 28.00

Safaricom is the NSE's core holding — the one stock every Kenyan portfolio should have exposure to at the right price. The Vodacom ownership consolidation removes a key uncertainty, the Ethiopia optionality is real, and M-Pesa's dominance is structural. At current prices the stock is fairly valued. Patient investors should watch for dips below KSh 28 to build or add to positions.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. NARA does not hold positions in securities discussed. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #003

Equity Group Holdings
EQTY · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 65.00
The One Paragraph Summary

Equity Group is East Africa's most-admired financial institution and Kenya's second-largest company by market cap. What started as a building society for farmers in Muranga is today a pan-African bank with 6 million+ customers across six countries — Kenya, Uganda, DRC, Rwanda, Tanzania, and South Sudan. It combines the scale of a tier-1 bank with the mission of a development institution, and its financial results prove the model works: consistent profit growth, a 5.7% dividend yield, and a management team regarded as among the best on the continent. At the right price, EQTY is a generational holding.

1.4×
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
8.0×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 76.25
Current Price
July 3, 2026

Falling interest rates benefit Equity Group in multiple ways: loan demand increases as credit becomes more affordable, non-performing loan pressure eases as borrowers' debt service burden drops, and SME clients — Equity's core market — become more active. Kenya's 2026 macro environment is one of the most supportive for banking in a decade.

Equity's competitive advantage is reach and trust. In communities where other banks did not go, Equity went. That brand loyalty built a deposit base that is sticky, low-cost, and structurally hard to replicate. Its DRC subsidiary has become one of the largest banks in that country, with enormous room to grow in a 100-million-person economy. Regional diversification reduces Kenya-specific risk meaningfully.

Metric
Current
Comment
Price / Book
~1.4×
Reasonable for franchise quality
Dividend Yield
~5.7%
Consistent annual payer
1-Year Return
+53%
Strong momentum
Research Range
Below KSh 65
Wait for a pullback
DRC instability: Equity's DRC exposure is substantial. Political and security instability in eastern DRC represents a real operational risk.
Currency risk: Multi-currency operations create translation risk when the shilling or regional currencies weaken against the USD.
ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 65.00

Equity Group is the NSE's finest banking franchise. The stock has had a strong run and is not cheap, but quality companies rarely are. Investors building a long-term position should look to add on any pullback below KSh 65, where the valuation becomes genuinely attractive relative to the growth runway.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #004

East African Breweries
EABL · NSE

Consumer Goods · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
WATCH
Monitor Asahi deal progress
The One Paragraph Summary

EABL brews Tusker, Kenya's most iconic beer — and has done so since 1922. It is the dominant consumer goods company in East Africa with brands including Guinness, Serengeti, and Bell. The investment story in 2026 is complicated by one major event: Diageo, which held a 65% controlling stake, announced the sale of that stake to Japan's Asahi Group Holdings. Asahi is a premium brand operator — their portfolio includes Peroni and Grolsch globally. The ownership change raises important questions about strategy, dividends, and regional ambition that will take time to answer. Patience is required.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
30.3×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
2.15%
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 273.25
Current Price
July 3, 2026

Consumer spending in Kenya is recovering as inflation eases and the CBK cutting cycle feeds through to household disposable income. Beer is a staple category — volume demand for Tusker is relatively inelastic. A growing middle class and increased urbanisation support long-term EABL volume growth.

EABL's moat is brand, distribution, and production scale. Tusker has a 100-year heritage that no competitor can replicate quickly. The company's distribution network reaches every corner of Kenya and key East African markets. Diageo's exit and Asahi's entry is the defining event to watch: Asahi is known for premium brands and operational discipline — if they bring Peroni and other premium labels into the East African market through EABL's infrastructure, the upside could be significant.

⚠ Diageo Exit — Asahi Entry

Diageo agreed to sell its 65% stake to Asahi Group. Until the deal closes and Asahi's strategic intentions become clear — dividend policy, capital allocation, brand strategy for East Africa — the stock carries elevated uncertainty. This is a reason to watch, not to rush in.

WATCH
Trigger
Post-Asahi deal clarity

EABL's business is excellent. The brand is irreplaceable. But the ownership transition creates real near-term uncertainty around dividends and strategy. Watch for deal closure and Asahi's first communication to EABL shareholders. Clarity on dividend policy post-transaction would be the signal to enter.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #005

KCB Group PLC
KCB · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
WATCH
Target KSh 60–68 post results
The One Paragraph Summary

KCB is Kenya's oldest bank and the largest by customer count, with operations across seven East and Central African countries. It is a fundamentally sound institution with strong earnings growth, a growing digital banking arm (KCB M-Pesa), and one of the deepest branch networks on the continent. The stock has run strongly in early 2026 — up 17% year-to-date by late February — ahead of its FY2025 results due March 18. NARA's view: quality stock, great long-term story, but let the results come first and look for the inevitable post-earnings dip before entering.

0.84×
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
6.8×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 78.50
Current Price
July 3, 2026
📅 March 18, 2026 — FY2025 Full Year Results

KCB releases full-year results on March 18. The stock has rallied in anticipation. Classic "buy the rumour, sell the news" dynamics mean a pullback is likely post-announcement even if results are strong. That post-results dip is the entry NARA is watching for.

KCB's scale is its moat — 180+ branches, 15,000+ agents, and banking licences in 7 countries. Its NBK subsidiary (acquired 2019) expanded its market share in Kenya significantly. KCB M-Pesa, its mobile lending product, has millions of active borrowers. Regional exposure to South Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and Ethiopia provides diversification but also brings political and currency risk.

WATCH
Research Range
KSh 60–68 post March 18

KCB is a premier East African banking franchise at a compelling valuation. Do not chase the pre-results rally. Wait for the post-March 18 dip into the KSh 60–68 range, which would represent a more attractive risk-reward entry. The 7% dividend yield provides a solid floor.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #006

Standard Chartered Kenya
SCBK · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
INCOME
KSh 340.50 · income hold
The One Paragraph Summary

Standard Chartered Kenya is the NSE's premier income stock. With a dividend yield approaching 15% — the highest of any major listed company in Kenya — it pays more in annual dividends than most NSE stocks earn in a year. The business is mature, profitable, and focused on corporate and institutional clients. It is not a growth story. But for an investor seeking reliable income from a well-governed, internationally-backed institution, SCBK is a difficult stock to argue against.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
17.1×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 340.50
Current Price
Last verified March 2026

Standard Chartered Kenya has operated in Kenya since 1911, making it one of the oldest financial institutions in the country. Its focus is corporate banking, trade finance, and wealth management for high-net-worth individuals. Unlike Equity or KCB, it is not competing for the everyday Kenyan customer — it is the bank of choice for multinationals, large corporates, and East Africa's wealthiest families.

Standard Chartered Kenya has one of the highest dividend payout ratios on the NSE. The bank's capital position is strong, its loan book is conservative, and it has historically returned a large portion of profits to shareholders. For investors who want steady income from a stable, well-governed institution, SCBK delivers.

Rate sensitivity: In a falling rate environment, SCBK's net interest margin compresses more than growth-oriented banks, as it relies heavily on corporate deposit spreads.
Limited growth: SCBK's corporate focus means it will not grow as fast as retail banks in a consumer credit expansion cycle. This is a yield story, not a capital appreciation story.
INCOME
Yield
~15% — Best on NSE

SCBK is a pure income holding. If you are building a portfolio where you need steady cash distributions, this belongs in it. Do not expect significant capital appreciation — the stock price will likely track earnings gradually over time. The value is in the annual dividend cheque.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #007

Co-operative Bank of Kenya
COOP · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 18.50
The One Paragraph Summary

Co-operative Bank is Kenya's third-largest bank and one of the most unique ownership structures in African banking: it is majority-owned by Kenya's cooperative movement — the farmers, saccos, and cooperatives that form the backbone of the rural economy. That ownership base creates an incredibly loyal, deep deposit network. COOP delivered a 21.6% annual return in 2025 and offers a 10.4% dividend yield — combining income and growth in a way that few NSE stocks can match. It trades at a discount to tier-1 peers and the discount is hard to justify.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
7.8×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 34.30
Current Price
July 3, 2026

COOP's ownership by Kenya's cooperative movement is its deepest competitive advantage. Cooperatives — coffee, tea, dairy, sacco-based — have their transactional banking embedded with Co-op Bank. This creates a structural, relationship-based deposit base that no competitor can easily acquire. The bank serves over 9 million customers including rural farmers, government employees through their SACCO payroll system, and urban SMEs.

COOP trades at a discount to Equity and KCB on most valuation metrics despite delivering comparable returns on equity. The discount is partly explained by its lower international profile and the complexity of its cooperative ownership. For the long-term fundamental investor, that discount is an opportunity.

ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 18.50

COOP combines income (10.4% yield) and growth (21.6% annual return) in one stock. Its cooperative ownership structure creates a loyalty moat that cannot be disrupted overnight. The discount to peers is unjustified on fundamentals. A strong long-term holding for the patient investor.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #008

NCBA Group PLC
NCBA · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 50.00
The One Paragraph Summary

NCBA was formed in 2019 from the merger of NIC Bank and Commercial Bank of Africa. In 2026, the dominant story is Nedbank's proposed acquisition of a 66% controlling stake — a deal the CMA has approved by granting a waiver from the mandatory full offer requirement. A foreign takeover of this scale at a premium is the single biggest catalyst NCBA has seen since its merger. The stock returned 33.2% in 2025 and offers a 10.8% dividend yield. Below KSh 50, it remains an attractive opportunity.

0.72×
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
N/A
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 86.75
Current Price
July 3, 2026
🏦 CMA Waiver — 66% Tender Offer Approved

Nedbank, South Africa's fourth-largest bank, received a CMA waiver allowing it to acquire up to 66% of NCBA without triggering a mandatory full offer to all shareholders. This is a structurally significant development — it means Nedbank's offer will likely be concentrated on founding family stakes and institutions, not public shareholders. However, the presence of a well-capitalised foreign strategic investor validates NCBA's franchise and brings the prospect of balance sheet strengthening and regional network sharing with Nedbank's pan-African operations.

NCBA is particularly strong in digital lending — its M-Shwari product (built on M-Pesa rails in partnership with Safaricom) has disbursed billions of shillings in micro-loans and has one of the largest active loan portfolios among Kenyan banks by volume of transactions. The merger of NIC and CBA created a bank with complementary strengths: NIC's corporate banking and leasing expertise combined with CBA's retail and digital capabilities.

ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 50.00

NCBA offers a compelling combination: 10.8% dividend yield, sub-book valuation, and a live takeover catalyst in the Nedbank deal. The CMA waiver approval removes the single biggest regulatory hurdle. Below KSh 50, the risk-reward is strongly in the patient investor's favour.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #009

Stanbic Holdings PLC
SBIC · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
WATCH
Re-entry below KSh 200
The One Paragraph Summary

Stanbic Holdings is a subsidiary of Standard Bank Group, South Africa's largest bank and one of the most respected financial institutions on the continent. Its Kenya operations focus on corporate, investment, and transactional banking — serving multinationals, large local corporates, and high-net-worth individuals. The stock has been the NSE's best-performing banking counter in early 2026, up 29% year-to-date, driven by strong earnings and a market re-rating of high-quality banking franchises. At KSh 255, the stock is approaching fair value and patience is warranted before adding.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
N/A
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 255.75
Current Price
Last verified March 2026

Stanbic's differentiation is its parent — Standard Bank Group operates in 20+ African countries, giving Stanbic Kenya a network advantage no purely domestic bank can match for large corporate and cross-border transactions. CfC Stanbic is particularly strong in securities services, custody, and institutional banking. Its dividend payout has been generous and consistent, reflecting a well-capitalised balance sheet.

After a 29% YTD rally, SBIC is no longer cheap. The fair value range based on earnings multiples and dividend yield has been largely reached. The stock is not overvalued, but the margin of safety has narrowed. Disciplined investors should wait for a pullback below KSh 200 to add meaningfully.

WATCH
Re-entry Range
Below KSh 200

Stanbic is a high-quality franchise — the 11.5% yield and Standard Bank backing make it a reliable income stock. At current prices, a new entry is not compelling. Existing holders should remain invested. New investors should wait for the post-rally consolidation to enter at a better price.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #010

I&M Group PLC
IMH · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 32
The One Paragraph Summary

I&M Group posted the highest annual return among the NSE's top companies in 2025 — a remarkable 76.2% — and still offers a 10.7% dividend yield. It is East Africa's most underrated banking group: present in Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Mauritius, with a reputation for conservative underwriting, strong trade finance, and serving the Indian-origin business community that drives a disproportionate share of Kenya's commerce. Despite the stellar run, it remains attractively valued relative to peers and the growth runway in its regional markets is long.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
N/A
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 49.05
Current Price
Last verified March 2026

I&M Group has built its reputation through trade finance and corporate banking for East Africa's business community. Its Rwanda operations in particular have become a standout performer, benefiting from that country's business-friendly environment and strong GDP growth. The bank's conservative loan book approach means NPLs are consistently lower than peers, reducing credit risk across the cycle.

I&M was significantly under-followed and under-owned by the market relative to its fundamental quality. As the NSE's banking sector re-rated in 2025, I&M's catch-up was dramatic. Strong earnings results and improved investor awareness drove the re-rating. At current levels, further upside requires earnings delivery — the valuation catch-up has largely happened.

ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 32

I&M is the NSE's quiet outperformer. The 10.7% yield provides income, the regional growth story provides capital appreciation potential, and the conservative credit culture reduces downside risk. An underappreciated holding that deserves more attention.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #011

British American Tobacco Kenya
BAT · NSE

Consumer Goods · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
INCOME
~12% yield, secular decline risk
The One Paragraph Summary

BAT Kenya is a cash machine with a 12% dividend yield — the second highest on the NSE among major companies. Its brands (Rothmans, Dunhill, Embassy) dominate the Kenyan cigarette market. The uncomfortable truth is that the global tobacco industry is in long-term structural decline as smoking rates fall, regulation increases, and ESG-driven divestment from tobacco stocks grows. BAT Kenya has managed this decline expertly — maintaining margins and dividends even as volumes slowly compress. It is not a growth story. It is a high-yield income holding for those comfortable with the sector.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
15.8×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
12.77%
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 548.00
Current Price
Last verified March 2026

BAT Kenya is 100% owned by British American Tobacco Plc, one of the world's largest tobacco companies. Its Kenyan operations manufacture and distribute cigarettes across East Africa. The business generates reliable, high-margin cash flows that are almost entirely paid out to shareholders. Operational execution has been excellent — management has maintained industry-leading margins despite regulatory headwinds.

Secular volume decline: Global and African smoking rates are falling. Kenya's youth — NARA's core audience — are less likely to smoke than previous generations. Long-term volume growth is structurally challenged.
Regulatory risk: Tobacco regulation globally is tightening — plain packaging, marketing restrictions, excise tax increases. Any aggressive regulatory action in Kenya would directly compress margins.
ESG exclusion: Institutional investors globally are excluding tobacco stocks. This constrains the shareholder base and limits upward re-rating potential.
INCOME
Yield
~12% — With risk eyes open

BAT Kenya is an income holding, not a growth holding. The 12% yield compensates for the secular decline risk in the underlying business. Investors who are comfortable with the tobacco sector and need reliable dividend income will find BAT attractive. Investors seeking capital appreciation should look elsewhere.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #012

KenGen PLC
KEGN · NSE

Energy · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 10.00
The One Paragraph Summary

KenGen produces over 75% of Kenya's electricity — predominantly from geothermal and hydro sources — and is the backbone of Kenya's national grid. It is a state-owned utility that combines an irreplaceable infrastructure moat with a compelling macro tailwind: the CBK rate-cutting cycle directly reduces the cost of servicing KenGen's large KSh-denominated debt load, improving profitability with every cut. Kenya's electrification agenda — reaching rural households and powering new industrial zones — is a structural tailwind for electricity demand. At below KSh 10, the stock is attractively positioned for patient long-term investors.

0.55×
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
1.3×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
9.80%
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 9.10
Current Price
July 3, 2026

Kenya sits on the East African Rift System — one of the world's most geothermally active regions. KenGen has built a geothermal capacity that gives Kenya some of the cheapest, cleanest, and most reliable electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Geothermal energy has no fuel cost and minimal marginal cost, making KenGen's unit economics structurally superior to oil or gas-based generators. This moat is geographic and cannot be relocated or replicated.

KenGen carries significant KSh-denominated debt raised to finance its generating assets. Every 100 basis point cut in the CBK rate reduces interest expense materially, flowing directly to the bottom line. With the CBK having cut from 13% to 8.75% and the cycle ongoing, KenGen is a direct, leveraged beneficiary of Kenya's monetary easing.

KPLC payment risk: KenGen sells to Kenya Power (KPLC), which has historically been slow to pay. Any deterioration in KPLC's financial position creates receivables risk for KenGen.
Government interference: As a state-owned enterprise, tariff negotiations and capital allocation decisions can be influenced by political considerations.
ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 10.00

KenGen owns Kenya's power generation infrastructure, sits on a geothermal moat, and benefits directly from rate cuts. At 0.55× book and below KSh 10, the stock is priced for stagnation, not the growth that Kenya's electrification agenda demands. A patient 12–24 month hold.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #013

ABSA Bank Kenya PLC
ABSA · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 16.00
The One Paragraph Summary

ABSA Bank Kenya is the catalyst stock of 2026. Its inclusion in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index — one of the most tracked benchmark indices for developing markets — means global index-tracking funds are now required to hold ABSA proportional to its index weight. This is forced, price-insensitive buying that cannot be stopped. Combined with a strong digital transformation story, a recovering Kenyan economy, and a parent (Absa Group, South Africa) with deep pockets, ABSA is the most technically and fundamentally compelling entry in the NSE banking sector for 2026.

0.91×
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
7.9×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
6.82%
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 32.80
Current Price
July 3, 2026
📈 MSCI Frontier Markets Index Inclusion

When a stock is added to the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, every fund globally that tracks or benchmarks against that index must own it. This creates a wave of automatic purchasing that is not based on fundamental analysis — it happens because the rules of the index require it. The entry window for fundamental investors is before that wave arrives in full. ABSA's +3.4% single-day move is the beginning, not the end of this flow.

ABSA Bank Kenya is a full-service retail and corporate bank, backed by Absa Group — one of Africa's largest and most respected financial institutions. It has invested heavily in digital transformation, with its mobile banking platform seeing strong adoption among Kenya's younger customers. Its balance sheet is conservative, governance is strong, and the parent provides an implicit backstop that pure domestic banks lack.

ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 16.00

ABSA's MSCI inclusion is not a rumour — it is confirmed. The passive fund buying flows are real, measurable, and ongoing. Combined with a sub-book valuation and a quality franchise, ABSA below KSh 16 is among the most compelling near-term setups on the NSE. The entry window is now.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #014

Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
KPLC · NSE

Energy & Utilities · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
WATCH
KSh 15–18 range
The One Paragraph Summary

Kenya Power is the country's sole electricity distributor — every Kenyan household and business that uses grid power is a KPLC customer. That monopoly distribution franchise is extraordinarily valuable. The problem has always been execution: KPLC has historically been plagued by technical losses, high debt, and management issues. The government's turnaround effort — including management changes, a new CEO, reduced losses, and resumed dividends (KSh 0.30 interim, KSh 0.70 final in 2024) — suggests the worst may be behind it. A speculative position at the right price captures significant upside if the turnaround holds.

N/A
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
7.0×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
4.68%
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 15.95
Current Price
July 3, 2026

KPLC's monopoly on electricity distribution in Kenya means it cannot fail — the government will not allow it. That implicit backstop, combined with genuine operational improvements under the current management team, provides a floor under the stock. Technical losses have reduced, collections have improved, and the resumption of dividends after years of silence is a material signal that financial health is recovering.

Execution risk: KPLC's turnaround is real but fragile. Management changes, political interference, or renewed balance sheet stress could reverse progress quickly.
Tariff dependency: KPLC's revenue is entirely dependent on regulated electricity tariffs. Any tariff-setting decision unfavourable to the company compresses margins immediately.
Debt burden: KPLC carries significant debt. In a falling rate environment this becomes less onerous, but it remains a structural vulnerability.
WATCH
Speculative Range
KSh 15–18 range

KPLC is a turnaround story that is still being written. The monopoly infrastructure is irreplaceable and the government backstop is real. But KPLC has disappointed before. Watch for consistent earnings delivery and further evidence of operational improvement. A small, speculative position below KSh 4.50 is justified for those with a high risk tolerance and patience.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #001

Kenya Reinsurance Corporation
KNRE · NSE

Insurance · State-Owned Enterprise · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 4.00
The One Paragraph Summary

Kenya Re is the national reinsurer of Kenya — the company that insures the insurers. It is majority state-owned, profitable, dividend-paying, and currently trading at 34 cents on the shilling — meaning the NSE is valuing it at less than a third of what its own balance sheet says it is worth. It has an earnings catalyst in March 2026 and a rate-cutting cycle at its back. For a patient investor willing to hold 12–24 months, KNRE at current prices represents one of the most asymmetric risk-reward setups on the entire NSE.

0.34×
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
2.2×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 3.78
Current Price
Last verified March 2026

The CBK has cut its benchmark rate to 8.75% and the cutting cycle is not over. For a reinsurer like Kenya Re, the net effect is broadly positive: more primary insurance premiums written in Kenya means more reinsurance ceded to KNRE. Kenya's insurance penetration is 2.3% of GDP — far below the global average of 7%. Every percentage point of growth in that figure translates directly into Kenya Re's top line.

Kenya Re is the national reinsurer — it accepts risk from primary insurers across Kenya and the wider East and Central African region. By law, Kenyan insurers must cede a portion of their risk to Kenya Re before going to international reinsurers. This statutory cession gives Kenya Re a captive revenue base that competitors cannot displace. The government owns approximately 60%, and the company has been profitable consistently — paying dividends every year.

Metric
KNRE Current
Fair Value Est.
Price / Book
0.34×
0.8–1.0×
Price / Earnings
~3.1×
7–9×
Implied price target
KSh 3.78
KSh 7.50–9.00
Potential upside
+136% to +183%

Price targets are estimates based on mean reversion to sector-average multiples. Not guarantees.

📅 March 25, 2026 — Full Year Results

Kenya Re expected to release full-year 2025 results. Strong results — particularly earnings growth — could act as a re-rating trigger. The low valuation means even modest positive news could move the price significantly.

State ownership: Government decisions can affect dividend policy in ways that are not always shareholder-friendly.
Catastrophe exposure: A major natural disaster in East Africa could result in large claims that compress earnings.
Value trap risk: Cheap stocks can stay cheap. The catalyst needed is positive earnings momentum.
ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 4.00

KNRE trades at a valuation so low it would be considered distressed on any other exchange. It is not distressed — it is profitable, state-backed, dividend-paying, and structurally positioned to benefit from Kenya's long-term insurance growth story. The March 2026 earnings catalyst provides a near-term reason to pay attention. For patient investors, this is one of the most compelling setups on the NSE.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. NARA does not hold positions in securities discussed. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #015

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya
DTB · NSE

Banking · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
ACCUMULATE
Below KSh 70
The One Paragraph Summary

Diamond Trust Bank is Kenya's most undervalued tier-2 bank. With operations across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi, a conservative loan book, and backing from the Aga Khan Development Network, DTB combines financial discipline with a mission-driven approach to banking in East Africa. It consistently trades at a steep discount to its net asset value — a discount that has persisted for years and creates a compelling opportunity for patient investors. The NSE's ongoing banking sector re-rating has not yet fully caught up with DTB, making it one of the remaining pockets of clear value.

<0.5×
Price / Book Value
Sector avg: 1.2×
24.5×
Price / Earnings
NSE avg: 7–10×
N/A
Dividend Yield
Verified March 2026
KSh 141.75
Current Price
July 3, 2026

DTB was founded in 1946 and has operated continuously in Kenya through every economic cycle since independence. Its ownership by the Aga Khan Development Network — a global network with a mandate to improve quality of life in developing nations — means DTB is managed for long-term stability, not short-term profit maximisation. This conservative philosophy results in one of the cleanest loan books in Kenyan banking.

DTB's discount to book persists for two reasons: lower visibility (it does not market aggressively to retail investors) and lower liquidity (it is less traded than the big-four banks). Neither of these reasons is a fundamental justification for the discount. As the NSE's banking sector continues to re-rate and investor sophistication grows, DTB's discount should narrow over time.

Illiquidity: DTB is one of the thinner-traded stocks among tier-2 banks. Building or exiting a large position takes patience.
Catalyst timing: The discount to book has persisted for years. There is no specific near-term event that will force re-rating — it is a fundamental patience play.
ACCUMULATE
Research Range
Below KSh 70

DTB is the NSE's hidden value. A conservatively managed, multi-country banking group backed by one of the world's most respected development institutions, trading at less than half of what it is worth on its balance sheet. The discount will not close overnight — but for an investor building a 2–3 year position, the risk-reward is compelling.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #016

CIC Insurance Group
CIC · NSE

Insurance · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
WATCH
KSh 15–18 range
5.06
Price (KSh)
Mar 9, 2026
14.6B
Market Cap
KSh
14.4×
Price / Earnings
TTM P/E
1.98%
Dividend Yield
DPS KSh 0.10

CIC Insurance is the cooperative movement's insurer — majority-owned by the same cooperative societies that own Co-operative Bank. It underwrites both general and life insurance across Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Malawi, and South Sudan, making it one of the few genuinely accessible insurance brands serving rural Kenya. The entry price of KSh 5.06 puts it within reach of the most modest investor through Ziidi Trader. The investment thesis is straightforward: Kenya's insurance penetration rate remains one of the lowest on the continent, and CIC's cooperative network gives it organic distribution to millions of underserved Kenyans. But earnings have been inconsistent, and the stock needs to prove a more durable profit trajectory before earning a full ACCUMULATE rating.

Insurance penetration in Kenya sits below 3% of GDP — one of the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is a structural growth opportunity, not a cyclical one. As incomes rise, digital distribution expands, and regulatory efforts push for insurance inclusion, the market is likely to grow meaningfully over the next decade. CIC is positioned at the intersection of the cooperative economy and the mass market, two of Kenya's strongest distribution channels.

CIC operates through two main segments: general insurance (motor, fire, agriculture, medical) and life insurance. The cooperative connection is its deepest competitive advantage — Kenyan cooperative societies are legal employers of millions of Kenyans and the primary savings vehicle for rural communities. CIC's captive distribution through Sacco societies and cooperative networks gives it access to policyholders that commercial insurers struggle to reach cost-effectively. Its expansion into Uganda, South Sudan, Malawi, and Tanzania extends this reach across a broader frontier market footprint.

MetricCICContext
PriceKSh 5.06Accessible entry
Market CapKSh 14.6BMid-cap insurer
YTD Return+7.4%Below market (NASI +11.7%)
3-Month Volume Rank#12 on NSEActive retail participation

At KSh 5.06, CIC is priced accessibly for retail investors. The stock is one of the 12 most actively traded on the NSE, meaning liquidity to enter and exit is reasonable. However, earnings quality has been mixed — CIC has struggled with claims volatility and investment income fluctuations that make consistent profit growth harder to forecast. The WATCH rating reflects the quality of the franchise rather than the completeness of the financial case.

Claims Volatility. Large weather events, motor claims spikes, and medical inflation can cause earnings to swing sharply. CIC has had years with poor underwriting profitability.

Investment Income Risk. Like all Kenyan insurers, CIC holds significant fixed income and equity investments. Lower interest rates (CBK cutting cycle) compress reinvestment yields, squeezing one of insurance's traditional profit drivers.

Governance & Cooperative Structures. Cooperative ownership brings captive distribution but can also slow strategic decision-making and complicate capital allocation. Minority shareholders have limited influence.

CIC has a compelling structural story — cooperative distribution, low-penetration market, accessible entry price. But the earnings track record is inconsistent. NARA wants to see two consecutive half-year results with improving combined ratios before moving to ACCUMULATE. Until then: watch, and consider building a small starting position below KSh 4.50.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #017

Britam Holdings
BRIT · NSE

Insurance & Financial Services · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
WATCH
Await earnings clarity
11.75
Price (KSh)
Mar 9, 2026
29.6B
Market Cap
KSh
7.9×
Price / Earnings
TTM P/E
No div.
Dividend
Suspended — watch for resumption

Britam is Kenya's most diversified financial services group outside the banking sector — combining insurance, asset management, and property across 8 countries. It was battered for years by governance controversies, investment losses, and COVID-era claims, but has been in a clear recovery phase since 2023. The stock has gained 53% over the past year, reflecting the turnaround in profitability. NARA's view: Britam's recovery is real, but at KSh 11.75 — against an all-time high of KSh 23 in 2017 — it still represents deep value relative to its franchise quality. However, dividend payments remain suspended, and earnings visibility is still lower than we would like for a full ACCUMULATE call. A patient WATCH with re-assessment on the next full-year results.

Britam sits at the intersection of three structural Kenyan growth themes: insurance penetration (below 3% of GDP), retirement savings, and domestic capital market deepening. As the CBK cuts rates, equity markets benefit — and Britam's asset management and investment income lines are direct beneficiaries. The easing cycle is a net tailwind.

Britam operates across five segments: long-term insurance, short-term insurance, asset management, property, and banking (via Housing Finance Group, in which it holds a significant stake). Its geographical footprint covers Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique — making it one of the most geographically diversified Kenyan companies by country count. The asset management division manages over KSh 200 billion in client funds. Insurance remains the core: Britam's Bima brand is one of Kenya's most recognised insurance names.

MetricBRITContext
PriceKSh 11.75vs KSh 23 ATH (2017)
Market CapKSh 29.6BSignificant franchise
1-Year Return+53%Turnaround recognition
DividendNone (2024)Reinvesting for recovery

Britam's 53% 1-year gain reflects genuine recovery, but the stock is still trading well below the levels that reflect the full value of its franchise. The absence of dividends is a clear signal that management is rebuilding capital buffers — not a problem, but it limits near-term income appeal. For long-horizon investors, the discount to intrinsic value is still meaningful.

Investment Portfolio Risk. Britam's investment income is tied to equity and bond markets. Volatility in either can wipe out underwriting profit quickly.

Dividend Suspension. Britam has not paid a dividend since the turbulent years. Until dividends resume, the stock lacks an income catalyst and full recovery confidence is harder to build.

Multi-country Complexity. Operating across 7+ countries adds regulatory, currency, and country-risk complexity that is difficult to model and can generate unexpected hits to group earnings.

Britam is a turnaround story that is working. The franchise — insurance, asset management, 8 countries — is genuinely valuable. But dividend resumption is the signal NARA wants to see before upgrading to ACCUMULATE. When Britam reinstates a dividend, it will signal that management has confidence in the earnings trajectory. Until then: watch closely, and consider a small position for those with a multi-year horizon.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.

NARA Research · Deep Dive #018

Jubilee Holdings
JUB · NSE

Insurance · Published March 2026
NARA Verdict
INCOME
Dividend-focused hold
388.50
Price (KSh)
Mar 9, 2026
28.2B
Market Cap
KSh
9.2×
Price / Earnings
TTM P/E
0.52%
Dividend Yield
DPS KSh 2.00 interim

Jubilee Holdings is East Africa's premier insurance group — a 90-year-old institution with operations in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Mauritius. It is the most respected brand in Kenyan insurance: the name Jubilee Insurance is synonymous with the professional class, corporate medical covers, and reliable claims settlement. The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) is a major shareholder, bringing institutional governance discipline. At KSh 388.50, the stock is not cheap, and it is lightly traded (rank 39 by volume) — making it better suited for a patient income investor than a momentum trader. NARA's view: hold for the dividend. Jubilee pays consistently, has a strong balance sheet, and benefits structurally from Kenya's growing formal employment base and demand for health and life insurance.

Kenya's formal employment base is growing, and employer-provided medical and life insurance is one of the first benefits to expand as companies formalise. Jubilee is the dominant provider in this segment. The CBK rate-cutting cycle has mixed effects on insurers: lower bond yields reduce investment income, but stronger economic growth expands the insurable population and corporate client base.

Jubilee operates across short-term insurance (motor, fire, engineering, marine) and long-term insurance (life, pensions, medical). Its medical insurance line is particularly strong — Jubilee Health Insurance is one of the most trusted names in the segment. The Aga Khan connection means access to a sophisticated network of institutional policyholders and referral relationships. Regional diversification across 5 countries provides revenue stability when any single market faces headwinds.

MetricJUBContext
PriceKSh 375.25Premium insurer
Market CapKSh 27.2B18th largest on NSE
YTD Return+12%In-line with market
Volume Rank#39 on NSEIlliquid — patient investors only

Jubilee's premium pricing reflects its premium franchise. This is not a deep-value stock — it earns its price through consistent earnings, strong brand, and AKDN governance. The illiquidity (rank 39 by 3-month volume) means price discovery can be sluggish and bid-ask spreads wider. This suits a buy-and-hold income investor, not a tactical trader.

Illiquidity. Jubilee is lightly traded. Entering or exiting a significant position can take time and move the price. Not suitable for investors who need to access capital quickly.

Investment Yield Compression. Lower rates reduce the returns on Jubilee's bond portfolio — a meaningful income line for any insurer. This is a sector-wide challenge, not unique to Jubilee.

Medical Claims Inflation. Rising medical costs and fraud in the health insurance segment can erode underwriting margins. This is the segment most exposed to cost pressures in 2026.

Jubilee is East Africa's most respected insurer and a reliable income hold. NARA rates it INCOME: buy it for the dividend, hold it for the brand and balance sheet quality. This is not the stock to buy if you need liquidity or are chasing rapid capital gains. It is the stock to buy if you want to own a piece of a 90-year-old institution that will still be paying dividends in 20 years.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.