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NARA publishes its research openly so that any Kenyan — whether they have KSh 500 or KSh 5 million — can access the same quality of analysis that was previously only available to institutional investors.

The NSE is not just for Nairobi. It is not just for the wealthy. It is not just for people with Bloomberg terminals. With M-Pesa and a phone, every Kenyan can own a piece of this country's most important companies. NARA exists to make sure they have the information to do it well.

Read the Daily Brief. Study the deep dives. Form your own view. Make your own decisions. The knowledge NARA publishes belongs to every Kenyan who reads it.

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"NARA is built for every Kenyan investor — from Nairobi CBD to the Rift Valley."
A Kenya at Risk

The money leaving Kenya
every second through gambling.

This is not an attack on gambling companies. It is a conversation about what our young people deserve — and what becomes possible when KSh 500 is invested instead of lost.

What Kenyans bet in 2024 — KRA & Daily Nation
KSh 766 Billion
in a single year · 2024
KSh 2.1B
Every single day
KSh 86.4M
Every single hour
KSh 24,000
Every single second
Source: Kenya Revenue Authority data, reported by Daily Nation, May 2025
The comparison that should stop us

More was bet in 2024 than the entire national education budget.

Kenya allocated KSh 656.6 billion to education in the 2024–25 financial year — every teacher salary, every classroom, every textbook for every child in Kenya. Kenyans bet KSh 766 billion in the same period. The gap is KSh 109 billion.

Betting (2024) KSh 766B
Education Budget (2024–25) KSh 656.6B
Gambling exceeds education by KSh 109 billion
79%
of Kenyan youth have placed a bet
GeoPoll, Betting in Africa 2025
1 in 3
gamblers bet every single day
GeoPoll, Betting in Africa 2024
32.4%
youth unemployment, ages 20–29
KNBS 2020, via EJBMR 2024
79.5%
of those seeking treatment had gambling disorders
Mathari Hospital Study, Willow Health 2025
Why the numbers are this high

Betting is filling a gap that knowledge should fill.

Research is consistent on this: the primary drivers of gambling among Kenya's youth are unemployment, poverty, and the absence of visible alternatives for building wealth. With 2.97 million Kenyans unemployed in 2023, the promise of quick returns through betting becomes hard to resist — especially when no one has ever explained what a share is.

The Lancet Public Health Commission (October 2024) concluded that gambling should be treated as a public health issue — on the same level as alcohol and tobacco. 450 million people globally show at least one behavioural symptom of gambling harm.

What changes the behaviour is not shame or restriction — it is the emergence of a genuine, accessible, and understandable alternative.

Sources: EJBMR 2024 · Lancet via Willow Health 2025
The shift NARA is here to support

What KSh 500 looks like when it is invested, not bet.

Betting KSh 500
NSE KSh 500
After 1 year
KSh 0 (expected)
~KSh 7,650
After 5 years
KSh 0 (expected)
~KSh 51,700
After 10 years
KSh 0 (expected)
~KSh 174,000
After 20 years
KSh 0 (expected)
~KSh 1.16M
KSh 500/month compounded at 15% annually (NSE historical average). Betting return assumes house edge — the long-run expected return for a bettor is negative. This is not investment advice.
"The same young Kenyan who bets KSh 500 today because no one explained investing to them — that is exactly who NARA is built for. Knowledge is the only thing that changes this."
M.K. Mwendia · Founder, NARA
Start with NARA Research →
The Real Cost of Gambling

KSh 766 billion left Kenya last year.
Here is what it could have built.

Every shilling lost to betting enriches foreign shareholders in Bulgaria, the UK, and offshore Isle of Man tax havens. The same money, redirected to the Nairobi Securities Exchange, stays in Kenya — and works for Kenyans.

Path A — What Actually Happened
KSh 766B
BET AWAY IN 2024 — GONE FROM KENYA
Profits wired to Bulgarian and American shareholders via UK holding companies and Isle of Man offshore structures
500,000 young Kenyans blacklisted by CRB — locked out of mortgages, business loans, and financial services
Expected return on every shilling bet: negative. The house edge guarantees that over time, the punter always loses
Kenya's wealth transferred to foreign owners. Zero dividends. Zero ownership. Zero stake in Kenya's future
Path B — What Could Have Happened
KSh 766B
INVESTED IN THE NSE — STAYS IN KENYA
KSh 766B equals half the entire NSE market cap — enough to buy meaningful stakes in every major listed company in Kenya
Dividends paid back to Kenyan households — not foreign shareholders. Wealth circulates inside Kenya
Capital deployed into Kenyan banks, energy, telecoms, insurance — fuelling the real economy and job creation
At 15% annual returns: KSh 766B becomes over KSh 3.1 trillion in 10 years — still owned by Kenyans
If KSh 766 Billion Had Gone Into the NSE Instead
100%
of Safaricom
Safaricom's entire market cap is ~KSh 650B. The 2024 betting total could have bought every single Safaricom share — and had KSh 116B left over
Equity Group's entire value
Equity Group — Kenya's largest bank by customers — has a market cap of ~KSh 150B. The gambling total is five times that entire company's worth
KSh 22B
In annual dividends
A diversified NSE portfolio at a conservative 3% dividend yield on KSh 766B would pay ~KSh 22 billion back to Kenyan households every year
110×
Kenya Power's market cap
Kenya Power (KPLC) is valued at ~KSh 7B on the NSE. Betting money dwarfs it 110 times — the utility powering every Kenyan home
1.2M
New Kenyan investors
If split equally among Kenya's ~12M youth aged 18–35, each would have received a KSh 63,800 starting portfolio — more than enough to open a CDS account and begin investing
KSh 3.1T
Value in 10 years at 15%/yr
At 15% annual returns — consistent with NSE blue-chip performance — KSh 766B compounds to over KSh 3 trillion in a decade. Still in Kenya. Still owned by Kenyans
The Individual Choice — KSh 500 a Month
Betting KSh 500/month for 20 years
KSh 0
Expected value. House edge guarantees this outcome. Total spent: KSh 120,000. Total returned: statistically less than you put in. The foreign operator keeps the rest.
Investing KSh 500/month for 20 years
KSh 1,160,000
At 15% annual return — consistent with NSE blue-chip history. Total invested: KSh 120,000. The same money. A different decision. A different life. Still owned by you.

The NSE is not a lottery. It is ownership. Every share you buy is a stake in a real Kenyan company — paying real dividends, employing real people, building a real economy.

The knowledge to make this decision is not complicated. It just has to be explained clearly, honestly, and in plain language. That is exactly what NARA exists to do.

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Young Kenyans discovering the NSE
Reshaping the conversation

Shares hazitakuwa
story za Jaba tena.

For too long, investing in the NSE felt like something only bankers and brokers in Westlands talked about. A closed conversation — too complex, too far away, too expensive for the rest of us.

That story is changing. With M-Pesa, Ziidi Trader, and the right knowledge, any young Kenyan — at a chama table, in a hostel, on a boda boda break — can start building real ownership in this economy.

NARA exists so that every young Kenyan has the same information the biggest investors have. No shilling is lost — depend on NARA to do the most.
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From the Desk of NARA

Latest Research & Briefs

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March 5, 2026
Index Inclusion · ABSA
ABSA Kenya Joins MSCI Frontier Markets Index — Historical Patterns of What Follows
March 4, 2026
Rate Cycle · Macro
CBK at 8.75%: How Rate-Cut Cycles Have Historically Affected NSE Sector Returns
March 3, 2026
Research · Portfolio Strategy
NSE Sector Diversification: A Data Framework for KSh 500K Across Six Sectors
March 2, 2026
Valuation · KCB
KCB Group at KSh 74.75: Earnings Multiples, Analyst Range, and the March 18 Results Context
February 28, 2026
Value Screen · NSE
Seven NSE Stocks Trading Below Book Value in 2026: A Price-to-Book Analysis
February 25, 2026
Next Generation

The best time to teach a child
about money is now.

Financial literacy is not taught in Kenyan schools. A child who grows up understanding shares, dividends, and compound growth starts life with an advantage most adults never had. NARA is building the resources to change that.

Three Kenyan children in red blazers as junior stockbrokers
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NARA is developing a free library of simple, age-appropriate resources to help parents and caregivers introduce children to shares, saving, and the NSE — using everyday Kenyan examples they will recognise.

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NARA's vision is to send trained representatives to secondary schools, universities, youth groups, and community chamas across Kenya — to run free financial literacy sessions on the NSE, investing basics, and how to open a CDS account.

What we cover in sessions:
What the NSE is and why it matters for every Kenyan
How to open a CDS account and fund it via M-Pesa
Reading a share price and understanding dividends
Why KSh 500/month invested now matters at age 40
Live demo: looking up a real NSE stock together
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Universities
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🏘️
Communities
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"A Kenya where every child grows up knowing what a share is, who owns what, and how to become part of it — that is the Kenya NARA is working towards."
M.K. Mwendia  ·  Founder, NARA
🔴 LIVE NARA Daily Brief #003 · Friday, March 7, 2026

NSE holds ground as ABSA gains 3.4% on MSCI passive flows. Kenya Re inches toward March 25 catalyst.

By NARA Research March 7, 2026 4 min read Free Edition
CBK Rate
8.75%
↓ Cutting cycle
91-Day T-Bill
9.14%
↓ Down sharply
NSE 20 Index
1,842
▲ +0.6% today
USD/KES
129.4
Stable

What Moved Today

ABSA Bank Kenya (ABSA) +3.4% — The week's standout mover. ABSA's inclusion in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index is driving measurable passive fund inflows. Index-tracking funds globally are required to hold ABSA proportional to its index weighting — this is forced, price-insensitive buying. The entry window is narrowing. NARA conviction: Researched at KSh 16.

NCBA Group (NCBA) +2.1% — Continuing to build on the Nedbank catalyst. The CMA waiver granted to Nedbank — allowing acquisition of up to 66% without triggering a full mandatory offer — removes the single biggest regulatory uncertainty. The market is beginning to price a takeover premium. Watch for formal tender offer timeline. NARA conviction: Researched at KSh 50.

Kenya Re (KNRE) +1.9% — Quiet accumulation ahead of the March 25 earnings release. KNRE has been the most consistent mover this week — no news, just patient buyers. The fundamental case remains the same: P/B of 0.34x, investment income up 23% in 2024, virtually zero debt. If the March 25 results confirm the earnings trajectory, expect a sharp re-rating. NARA conviction: Researched at KSh 3.50.

KenGen (KEGN) -1.2% — Minor profit-taking after a strong run. No fundamental change. KenGen is structurally positioned to benefit from the CBK rate-cutting cycle — its KSh-denominated debt load becomes cheaper to service with every cut. The -1.2% dip is not a signal. NARA conviction: Researched at KSh 10.

What to Watch Next Week

MON 10CBK MPC minutes release — confirm rate cut trajectory TUE 11Safaricom: watch for any Ethiopia subscriber data updates WED 12NSE All-Share Index momentum — watch 160 level as support MON 18KCB Group FY2025 Results — Key date. Buy the post-results dip at KSh 60–68

NARA Verdict Table — March 7, 2026

Stock Price P/B Div Yield Entry Target NARA View
KNRE 3.18 0.34x 4.7% Below 3.50 Positive
NCBA 48.50 0.72x 5.5% Below 50 Positive
ABSA 15.30 0.91x 4.2% Below 16 Positive
KEGN 9.80 0.55x 3.8% Below 10 Positive
EQTY 54.25 1.4x 5.9% Below 52 Neutral
KCB 74.75 0.84x 4.0% 60–68 post Mar 18 WATCH
SCOM 18.50 4.2x 3.5% Below 17 Neutral
Disclosure This brief is published for educational and research purposes only. It is not personalised investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decision.
Kenyan family planning finances
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Our Mission

Bringing hope through knowledge.

67% of Kenya's youth are unemployed or underemployed. Over one million young Kenyans enter the labour market every year into an economy that cannot absorb them. But every single one of them can open a CDS account, fund it via M-Pesa, and begin building ownership in Kenya's most important companies — today, with whatever they have.

67%
Youth unemployment
75%
Population under 35
1M+
Enter job market yearly
The NSE cannot create jobs for everyone. But it can create wealth for anyone willing to learn. That is what NARA is here to teach.
The Story Behind NARA

Built from the diaspora,
for every Kenyan.

"I could find research on any NYSE stock in minutes. For NSE stocks — companies with real earnings, real assets, real growth — there was almost nothing."
M.K. Mwendia · Founder, NARA

I grew up in Kenya. Went to school here. Then left for the diaspora — the way many Kenyans do — carrying a quiet love for home in everything I did. Working as an insurance underwriter and actively trading the NYSE, financial markets became more than a profession. They became the lens through which I saw the world.

When I turned that lens on the NSE, I found something that genuinely surprised me. Kenya Re sitting at 34 cents on the shilling. KCB earnings up 66% in a year. NCBA with a potential Nedbank acquisition reshaping its future. By any NYSE standard, these were compelling, underfollowed value stories. The kind of thing that would have Wall Street analysts writing reports for months.

But the research simply did not exist. No structured deep dives. No one connecting the CBK rate-cutting cycle to which NSE sectors win and which lose. Kenyan investors — some of the sharpest people I know — were navigating one of Africa's oldest capital markets on broker tips and gut instinct.

The Light Bulb Moment

Then I discovered Ziidi Trader — and saw what Safaricom had quietly built. Buying NSE shares directly from your phone, M-Pesa linked, settled in minutes. The access barrier was gone. Any Kenyan, anywhere in the world, could now own a piece of Equity Bank or KenGen before lunch. What was missing was not access. It was information. That was the gap NARA was built to fill.

The NSE exists for every Kenyan — not just the wealthy, not just Nairobi, not just the connected. With M-Pesa and a phone, a young person in Kisumu, Eldoret, or Garissa can buy shares in Equity Bank today. What they have not had is the knowledge to make that decision with confidence. That is the gap NARA was built to fill.

NARA is the platform I wished had existed when I started. Every analysis published on NARA is independent, data-driven, and written for the kawaida mwananchi. No sponsored content, no broker relationships — just honest research on NSE-listed companies.

The Goal

Give every young Kenyan the knowledge
to make their own decisions. For free. Always.

NARA's goal is not to grow a personal portfolio. It is to close a knowledge gap that has left millions of young Kenyans — the most educated generation in Kenya's history — without the tools to participate in the wealth-building opportunities available to them right now, through the NSE.

A 22-year-old in Mombasa who understands dividend yield, book value, and the CBK rate cycle has a meaningful advantage over one who does not. NARA exists to give that advantage to anyone who wants it — through daily research, plain-language education, and honest analysis that names what it sees.

Free
Always, for every Kenyan
Daily
Research, every weekday
Plain
Language any Kenyan understands

The knowledge NARA publishes belongs to every Kenyan who reads it. Use it. Share it. Push back on it. Build on it. That is what it is for.

Kenyan investor
"NARA is built for every Kenyan investor — from Nairobi CBD to the Rift Valley."
01
Independent Research
No broker relationships. No sponsored content. Analysis driven by data, not commissions.
02
Built for the Kawaida Mwananchi
NARA's audience is the everyday Kenyan investor — not hedge funds or brokers. Every brief is written so that someone encountering the NSE for the first time can understand it.
03
Kenya-First Lens
Election cycles, CBK policy, CMA regulation — the factors that matter most for NSE equities, analysed in context.
04
Retail & Institutional Grade
Accessible enough for a first-time investor. Rigorous enough for a fund manager's investment committee.
Research Disclosure — Please Read: NARA — Nairobi Research and Analytics publishes independent market research and financial education content for informational purposes only. Nothing published on this platform constitutes investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation of any kind. NARA is not licensed by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya to provide personalised investment advisory services. All analysis reflects the author's own research process and is published as educational commentary, not guidance on any specific course of action. NARA may hold positions in securities covered in its research — this is disclosed to enable readers to assess potential conflicts of interest, not to signal any action. Past performance of any NSE security is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions carry risk. Readers must conduct their own independent due diligence and consult a CMA-licensed investment advisor before making any financial decisions.